Every card ever issued
Lag is measured from the slowest source. A source that has stopped means cards stop appearing for the contract it reads, even if the others are keeping up, so the worst one is the one worth reporting.
The published odds are exact, not approximate: the four tiers divide all 256 possible values of one hash byte, into 154, 64, 31 and 7. Over a small number of cards the observed split will wander around those figures; over a large number it will not.
Every count here comes from the same database the cards do. Nothing is rounded up, and nothing is a projection.